The
12 Tribes
of American Politics
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The religious groups that comprise the
U.S. electorate.
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| By John
Green and Steven
Waldman |
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This
article appeared originally
on www.beliefnet.com, the
leading multifaith website for religion, spirituality, inspiration
& more. Used with permission. All
rights reserved.
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Judging from the amount of press
coverage they get, you'd
think the only religious groups in American politics were the religious
right - and everyone else. In fact, a shrewd candidate needs to
understand the idiocyncrasies and hot buttons of all Twelve Tribes of
American Politics.
Unlike the more famous Twelve Tribes of Israel, these groups can all be
located. Using data from the Pew Religion Forum (see full study) and the Ray K Bliss Institute at
University of Akron, Beliefnet has defined the religious groupings that
make up our political landscape. The surveys were conducted in May 2004
and so show longterm trends rather than present day horse race
preferences.
The biggest finding: The
Religious Right and the Religious Left are almost exactly the same
size. The former has had a much greater impact for the past 25 years
largely because of superior organization and drive.
And now....the Twelve Tribes of American Politics:
THE "RELIGIOUS RIGHT"
HEARTLAND CULTURE WARRIORS
MODERATE EVANGELICALS
WHITE BREAD PROTESTANTS
CONVERTIBLE CATHOLICS
THE "RELIGIOUS LEFT"
SPIRITUAL BUT NOT RELIGIOUS
SECULARS
LATINOS
JEWS
MUSLIMS & OTHER FAITHS
BLACK PROTESTANTS
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1.
The "Religious Right"
Percent of the electorate: 12.6%
Who are they: Highly orthodox white
evangelical Protestants: 88% believe the Bible is literally true; 87%
report attending worship once a week or more. 44% live in the South.
Ideology: Conservative: 66%, Moderate: 25%,
Liberal: 9%
Party: Republican: 70%, Independent: 10%,
Democratic: 20%
Political trend: Strongly Republican and
getting more so each year.
What they care about: Compared to other
groups, more likely to care about cultural issues (40% compared to 20%
nationally); 84% are pro-life and 89% oppose marriage or civil unions
for gays; very strong supporters of Israel (64% say the U.S. should
back Israel over the Palestinians). Four-fifth claims that religion is
important to their political thinking. This group strongly supports the
political involvement of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: His
personal faith, backing for "traditional morality," and tough foreign
policy.
What they might like about Kerry: Not much.
Political significance: This group is a key
part of Bush's base. Concentrated in the South, they help secure a big
chunk of the Electoral College for Bush. But they are also found in
swing states, such as Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri. The
big question is: how many will vote in November? Bush needs higher
turnout than in 2000 in the swing states.
2.
Heartland Culture Warriors
Percent of the electorate: 11.4%
Who are they: Conservative Catholics and
conservative mainline Protestants, Latter-day Saints, and other smaller
groups. Slightly less orthodox than the Religious Right (54% of the
Protestants are biblical literalists; 60% of the Catholics agree with
papal infallibility) and more theologically diverse. But they are
regular churchgoers (three-quarters report attending worship service
weekly or more often.)
Ideology: Conservative: 50%, Moderate: 41%,
Liberal: 10%
Party: Republican: 54%, Independent: 17%,
Democratic: 29%
Political trend: Stable in size, this group
is becoming more Republican.
What they care about: Like the religious
right, conservative on social issues--73% support traditional marriage
and half say their faith is important to their political thinking. They
support churches being active in politics. But they give greater
attention to economic and foreign policy issues.
What they might like about Bush: His tax
cuts, views on marriage, the faith-based initiative, and the war on
terrorism.
What they might like about Kerry: A more
cooperative foreign policy. Conservative mainline Protestants support
stem cell research, but conservative Catholics have problems with
Kerry's liberal approach to the faith.
Political significance: Bush needs strong
turnout from this group, but must also do some persuading. This group
is key in the rural and suburban Midwest.
3.
Moderate Evangelicals
Percent of the electorate: 10.8%
Who are they: No, it's not an oxymoron:
these white evangelical Protestants hold less orthodox religious
beliefs (54% are biblical literalists) and don’t show up in church
quite as often as the "religious right" (35% go weekly or more often),
but they belong to evangelical churches and regard themselves as
born-again Christians.
Ideology: Conservative: 48%, Moderate: 26%,
Liberal: 16%
Party: Republican: 47%, Independent: 22%,
Democratic: 31%
Political Trend: Clinton did well with this group in the 1990s, but
Bush bested Gore in 2000.
What they care about: Not as concerned about
cultural rot as their conservative brethren. They're still pro-life,
pro-war and anti-gay-rights, but place a greater emphasis on economic
issues, where they tend to be moderate: 61% would fund more
anti-poverty programs by taxing the rich. Only 40% said their faith was
important to their political thinking, but they nonetheless support the
political involvement of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: His
personal faith: 83% of this group thinks it’s important for the
President to have strong religious beliefs. Also, they are sympathetic
to the president's social and foreign policy positions.
What they might like about Kerry: His views
on the poor and the middle-class "squeeze."
Political significance: Likely to go for
Bush with whom they share a strong faith bond. But if Kerry connects on
economics, it will help him in crucial Midwestern swing states, such as
Wisconsin and Minnesota, where moderate evangelicals are common.
4.
White Bread Protestants
Percent of the electorate: 7.0%
Who are they: The core members of the
Protestant "mainline" churches-- United Methodist Church, Presbyterian
Church in the USA, American Episcopal Church, United Church of Christ,
and so forth--that once dominated the American religious landscape.
About one-quarter report regular church attendance and just 19% are
biblical literalists; 47% agree that "all the world's great religious
are equally true and good."
Ideology: Conservative: 37%, Moderate: 43%,
Liberal: 20%
Party: Republican: 46%, Independent: 21%,
Democratic: 33%
Political trend: This group is shrinking in
size and becoming more politically moderate and less Republican, though
Bush still won them in 2000.
What they care about: They don't much
like the Republican Party's emphasis on conservative social issues:
they're pro-choice and favor civil unions or same-sex marriage. But
what they care most about is economics--half give priority to economic
matters - and there they tend to be more conservative.
What they might like about Bush: Tax cuts
and national security.
What they might like about Kerry: Bringing
down the deficits and defending a woman's right to choose.
Political significance: Bush has an
advantage, but a lot of work to do.
The big question: Will disappointment with
Bush over the deficit and his close alliance with the "religious right"
produce tepid turnout and defections to Kerry? If so, Kerry will have a
leg up in the swing states.
5.
Convertable Catholics
Percent of the electorate: 8.1%
Theology: The core of the white Catholic
community, they outnumber conservative Catholics by nearly two to one.
Moderate in practice (42% claim to attend worship weekly) and belief
(less than one-half agree with papal infallibility). 52% agree that
"all the world's great religions are equally true and good."
Ideology: Conservative: 29%,
Moderate: 49%, Liberal: 22%
Party: Republican: 34%, Independent 19%,
Democrat: 47%
Political Trend: The quintessential swing
vote. Clinton edged out Bush senior, Bush junior edged out Gore in
2000. Up for grabs.
What they care about: Half gave priority to
economic issues, with a special emphasis on liberal social welfare
policy. To the dismay of the Catholic Church, small majorities are
pro-choice and supportive of stem cell research. They are moderate on
foreign policy. Only about one-fifth report that their faith is
important to their political thinking.
What they might like about Bush: War on
terror, compassionate conservatism.
What they might like about Kerry: Restoring
American influence abroad via a more cooperative foreign policy; aid to
the disadvantaged. As a pro-choice Catholic, he's one of them.
Political significance: Abundant in most of
the swing states, this group could decide the election. So far no sign
of tribal loyalty for their co-religionist Kerry. They dislike Bush's
bias toward the rich but so far think he's the better man to lead the
war on terror. Ripe for Kerry if he can make the case on Iraq.
6.
Religious Left
Percent of the electorate: 12.6%
Theology: Theologically liberal Catholics,
mainline and evangelical Protestants. Less church-bound (less than
one-quarter report weekly worship attendance) and pluralistic in their
beliefs (two-thirds agree that "all the world's great religious are
equally true and good.")
Ideology: Conservative: 20%,
Moderate: 50%, Liberal: 30%
Party: Republican: 31%; Independent: 18%;
Democratic: 51%
Political trend: Probably growing in size
and moving in a Democratic direction.
What they care about: Liberal on most
everything. On marriage, 42% favor same-sex unions and 29% civil
unions; 77% are pro-choice on abortion. A majority opposes the war in
Iraq. But only a few report that their faith is important to their
political thinking, and overall, they oppose the political involvement
of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: Hardly
anything...
What they might like about Kerry: His
economic, social, and foreign policies
Political significance: Clearly Kerry
voters. But--and it's a huge but-- unlike their conservative
counterparts, they tend not to vote on religious grounds or in
especially large numbers. Key question: can they match the "religious
right" turnout in the swing states?
7.
Spiritual but not Religious
Percent of the electorate: 5.3%
Who they are: Most report spiritual
beliefs--85% believe in God and more than half are sure there is some
kind of life after death--but they don't much like Houses of Worship or
organized religion. They report no formal religious affiliation and a
majority report seldom or never attending worship services. 47% are
under age 35.
Ideology: Conservative: 26%,
Moderate: 49%, Liberal: 25%
Party: Republican: 28%, Independent: 37%,
Democratic: 35%
Political Trend: Growing in numbers but
politically divided.
What they care about: An eclectic mix.
They're liberal on economics, abortion, and foreign policy - more than
half believe the United States has no special role to play in
international affairs -- but 58% favor traditional marriage. Only about
one-fifth report that their faith is important to their political
thinking.
What they might like about Bush: Fending off
gay marriage.
What they might like about Kerry: Foreign
policy and economic liberalism
Political significance: Mysterious. Logical
Kerry voters, but spiritual people without a church affiliation tend to
vote less.
8.
Seculars
Percent of the electorate: 10.7%
Who they are: Non-religious, atheists, and
agnostics.
Ideology: Conservative: 17%,
Moderate: 48%, Liberal: 35%
Party: Republican: 26%, Independent 27%,
Democratic: 47%
Political trend: A Democratic bloc that has
been steadily growing in size.
What they care about: The group that is most
uncomfortable when candidates talk about their personal faith (54%).
Very liberal on social issues: 83% are pro-choice and 59% favor
same-sex marriage. Liberal on foreign policy, moderate on economics,
and quite young (47% under age 35).
What they might like about Bush: The
free-market part of the Bush agenda, and some sympathy for the war on
terror.
What they might like about Kerry: He's not
affiliated with the "religious right." They're socially liberal and
amenable to Kerry's "don't go it alone" approach to foreign policy.
Political significance: Important Kerry
voting bloc that helps give him a lock on the electoral votes of the
mega-states of California, New York, and Illinois. The secular could
make the difference in Oregon and Washington as well as New Hampshire
and Nevada.
9.
Latinos
Percent of the electorate: 7.3%
Who they are: Majority Catholic, but with a
large Protestant minority. Fairly orthodox in practice (53% report
attending worship once a week or more) and belief (60% of the Catholics
agreed with papal infallibility; 58% of the Protestants are biblical
literalists).
Ideology: Conservative: 28%,
Moderate: 45%, Liberal: 27%
Party: Republican: 24%, Independent: 22%,
Democratic: 54%
Political trend: Rapidly growing;
Republicans have made some gains among Latino Protestants, but not yet
among the Catholics.
What they care about: Though identified as
ripe for Republican wooing because of their more conservative cultural
views (59% oppose abortion or gay marriage), they care twice as much
about economics as social issues. More than two-fifths want government
spending increased. But a majority says their faith is very important
to their political thinking and they strongly support the political
involvement of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: Strong
foreign policy and support for traditional marriage.
What they might like about Kerry: Expanded
social welfare programs and economic policies.
Political significance: A key voting bloc in
Florida, Colorado and the rest of the Southwest. Important for Kerry,
so Bush will try to make some inroads.
10.
Jews
Percent of the electorate: 1.9%
Who they are: Common cultural identity mixed
with diverse religious beliefs.
Ideology: Conservative: 19%, Moderate: 36%,
Liberal: 46%
Party: Republicans: 21%,
Independents: 11%, Democrats: 68%
Political Trend: A strong Democratic group,
Jews may well have become more so since 2000.
What they care about: The only group that
puts foreign policy first. 75% of Jews say the U.S. should support
Israel over the Palestinians-a figure comparable to the religious
right-and also have moderate to conservative positions on other foreign
policy matters. Liberal on economics and especially social issues. Jews
are especially troubled by the political involvement of religious
organizations and are uncomfortable with politicians discussing their
faith in public.
What they might like about Bush: Support of
Israel and the war on terrorism.
What they might like about Kerry: Liberal
domestic policy on a range of economic and social matters.
Political significance: Jews are a small
group concentrated in some key states, such as Florida. Bush has tried
to break the Democratic lock on Jewish voters, but does
not appear to be succeeding. These are Kerry voters.
11. Muslims and other Faiths
Percent of the electorate: 2.7%
Who they are: Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus,
Wiccans, and other smaller groups.
Ideology: Conservative: 10%,
Moderate: 46%, Liberal: 44%
Party: Republicans: 12%, Independents 33%,
Democrats: 55%
Political Trend: In 2000, Muslims backed
Bush, but the other groups went for Gore.
What they care about: They care more about
economics (and are liberal on it) but some (Muslims especially) are
conservative on social issues like gay marriage. They oppose the
political involvement of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: For
Muslims, his consistent effort to convey respect for Islam and his
fight to bring democracy to the Islamic world.
What they might like about Kerry: Liberal
domestic policies and new directions in foreign policy. And for
Muslims, the fact that he didn't launch the Patriot Act.
Political significance: Muslims are less
than 1% of the electorate but are concentrated in two battleground
states: Michigan and Ohio. Other groups are found largely in safe
Democratic areas and therefore are less important politically this
year. (Apologies to California Buddhists and New York Wiccans).
12.
Black Americans
Percent of the electorate: 9.6%
Who they are: Fairly orthodox in practice
(59% report attending worship once a week or more) and belief (56% are
biblical literalists). However, the experience of slavery and
segregation has produced a distinctive theology.
Ideology: Conservative: 27%,
Moderate: 48%, Liberal: 25%
Party: Republicans: 11%, Independents 18%,
Democrats: 71%
Political trendline: Strong Democrats and
especially so in 2000.
What they care about: The economy, stupid.
Two-thirds put pocketbook and social welfare issues first. But this
group is quite conservative on
social issues: 72% support traditional marriage and 54% are
pro-life on abortion. They also support Bush's faith-base initiative.
Highly politicized, they are quite comfortable with the political
involvement of religious organizations.
What they might like about Bush: Faith-based
initiative and support for traditional marriage.
What they might like about Kerry: He's a
liberal Democrat. Period.
Political significance: As with the
"religious right" for Republicans, the key question is not who they'll
vote for but turnout. Kerry desperately needs them to vote in record
numbers.
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